几个月前，郑水兴大师在（星洲日報／投資致富‧產業焦點）的撰文中，对马来西亚的房地产做了几项预测，propcafe.net 按郑大师的预测，拟出我们的看法，愿与读者分享：-
第一預測 全球透過房產公開“籌款＂
鄭水興表示，如今有一很明顯的現象，即是世界多個國家高調地利用房產興建計劃或經濟特區來吸引全球資金。他指出，新興國家如巴西已開始通過各種投資活動，向全世界招資來發展里約熱內盧，以迎接2年後的世界杯及4年後的奧運會體壇盛事。同時，我國也透過依斯干達經濟特區，投入世界級的基建招資，寮國與緬甸也因經濟特區發展而逐漸興旺了起來。
“不僅新興國家，即使富裕如中國也積極開發第二、三線城市，在南寧、成都、杭州、無錫等地方建設了多個經濟特區來招資。＂此外，馬爾代夫、西班牙、德國、英國、澳洲等條件優越的國家也向世界投資者招手，甚至連美國都鋪紅地毯向亞洲國家吸引投資。房地產市場也因世界各國的推出發展計劃產生重組現象。
[propcafe.net： 以经济学的 Y=C+I+G+X-M 理论而言，房地产的确可以带动经济，因为它可以牵动32种行业，如建筑，装修，室内设计，家具，灯饰，房地产中介，银行，保险业等， 政府积极带动特区如依斯干达经济投资，不仅增加了政府投资 (G↑) ，刺激了私人界的注资 (I ↑)，32种行业的消费会额会增加 (C ↑)，也会吸引外资投资本国 (X↑)，无形中提升了倍增效应（Multiplying effect）】。
第二預測 房產熱點南移
在房地產熱點方面，鄭水興發現投資者的焦點有往南移的傾向。鄭水興指出，中國藉著各種經濟活動向東南亞國家招商，日本已計劃在今年進軍東南亞市場，連美國也出訪緬甸，積極跟東南亞打交道。即使我國本身投資熱點也往南移至柔佛依斯干達。
“在我的預測之中，依斯干達在今年必定大熱，特別是新加坡與中國的投資者更加為之瘋狂，大馬投資者也會把焦點從其他城市移到依斯干達，而且同時受益的還有柔佛新山地區。＂此外，鄭水興表示，全球化、歐美及中日南下的趨勢，會促使2013年房地產市場再度起飛。
东南亚的房地产的确在近期内受到许多海外关注。
【propcafe.net: 伊斯干达似乎有过热的现象，归咎于从彼岸新加坡涌过来的投资者，伊斯干达的确热力四射，可是热力是否可持久，得看谁将成为下一届首相，下一届的巫统党内选举将成为关键，所谓一朝天子一朝臣，新上任的首相会重新规划发展区，如老马时期的布城，阿都拉时期的北部经济走廊，南部经济走廊等。伊斯干达 与前首相老马的布城有异曲同工之妙，都是以政治为导向的发展区域，成功与否，得看哪个政党及哪位领袖当家】
第三預測 東南亞房產崛起
鄭水興表示，東南亞原本就是一個很龐大的市場，從近期東西方大國都積極向東南亞國家示好的行動中，可看見他們對東南亞的興趣，如美國，近來就很注重搞好與泰國、柬埔寨及緬甸的外交關係。
他指出，印尼與緬甸將是東南亞新崛起的兩大紅星。“印尼的龐大人口消費力及低廉勞工，緬甸從封閉到開放，都能吸引外資前來投資，在突然受到全球化的衝擊下，最先上漲的必然是房地產。＂
儘管如此，鄭水興表示，擁有健全與穩定的法治，大馬與新加坡繼續保持在東南亞的優越地位無可取代。“很多商家開發東南亞市場時，都會選擇這兩個國家設為區域中心，所以在金融、辦公、行政等方面的服務領域會向好，房地產也因此受惠。＂
【 Propcafe.net：新加坡近来政府的一系列打房政策已经凑效，外国人在新加坡置业需付出相当大的代价，颇高的印花税，房屋销售税，银行的严厉政策，冷却了外资的投资性质。相较之下，大马的打房政策还是相当温和的，原因无他，在大马，大部分主要的发展商都是国营或国资企业，打房策略如太紧绷，会影响这些国资发展商的前景】
第四預測 旅遊項目屬獨立創造熱點
旅遊地點能帶動附近一帶的房地產價值，鄭水興表示，一些地區的發展也在積極推動旅遊發展，讓其成為有別於經濟特區的獨立創造的投資熱點。“墨西哥的坎昆、泰國的曼谷，特別是澳洲的黃金海岸，都是一些房產被旅遊業帶動發展蓬勃的地區。＂
“我預測在2018年，旅遊相關產業如酒店、度假村、生態旅遊公園、民宿、高爾夫球場一帶的產業將是價值最高的房地產業。＂他也指出，商務旅遊業在大馬已開始受注重，“大吉隆坡計劃＂中振興商務旅遊業方面就包括鼓勵2013至2016年之間建立更多的會議廳及四或五星級酒店，以容納更多來自世界各地的商旅人士。
【propcafe.net大马的主要投资地点还是集中在三大城市，即吉隆坡，槟城，及新山伊斯干达。其他旅游景点的房地产业，如马六甲，浮罗交怡，亚庇，金马伦的旅游产业还是不成气候】
第五預測 有錢人會更有錢
鄭水興表示，房產投資近年內造就了很多百萬富翁，這現象在中國或其他新興市場尤其普遍。他說，富人會比一般的人較有財力與網絡透過房地產賺錢，由於今年銀行會加緊信貸條規，融資難度增高，現金充裕的人總會比較有優勢，進一步促使有錢人變得更加富有。
【 propcafe.net：不只中国，其实全世界也一样，按20：80常例，世上20% 的富人拥有世界80%的财富。打房策略越加严厉，只能打击到芝麻绿豆的小投资者，手上现金流优渥的富人投资者还是不受打击的】
第六預測 二手房市價值高
鄭水興形容大馬的二手房市像孤兒一樣沒人照顧，他鼓勵政府給予適當的關注，二手房市其實擁有很高的價值。鄭水興表示，政府或發展商不應該僅僅注重如何抬高價錢或全數售出，而應該注重買家或租戶的使用目的，因為房產的用處可以決定它日後的價值。
“如果政府引進外來的投資者，是為在大馬建立第二家園，或計劃設立多間分店，那麼這些投資者是最優質。＂鄭水興舉例說，KLCC區有一棟樓的地點與發展商都很理想，可是其中80%的買家是外國投資者，2009年債務危機發生後，投資者將產業摒棄，無人使用。數年過去，該產業即成為不是很理想、投資回酬低的房產。“政府若能在二手房方面照顧好，房產會才能長期發展，這對各個方面人士都好。＂
【 propcafe.net: 关于以上这一点，PROPCAFE.NET 相当同意，政府开一只眼，闭一只眼的，默许发展商提供 DIBS，10-30% 回扣，免付律师费，印花费的措施，无形中提高了投资者的购买能力，投资者甚至无需掏出分文，只需有收入，贷到贷款，就能坐拥房地产。
这也造就了一手房（发展商直销）及二手房的不公竞争平台，毕竟二手房市的销售者无法提供，免息贷款，免律师费免印花税的，在竞争上已经输了几个马鼻。正如郑大师说言，政府如要看到房市健康的茁壮成长，得须让一手及二手市场自由竞争]
第七預測 交通阻塞租金跌
現在很多投資者都在追捧MRT相關地帶產業，認為是投資熱點，惟鄭水興卻有不同的看法：“雖然現在建著MRT，日後一帶房產的價值會提昇，但興建過程中導致的大塞車會讓附近的商業區租金下跌。＂
他補充，投資回酬率下跌，現金週轉問題可能浮現，也許投資者會在有成果之前放棄該產業了。鄭水興表示，交通的方便奠定了地區的發展價值，韓國江南的成功可以歸功於它交通非常便利。
【Propcafe.net: 现在许多发展商都用MRT/LRT 交通枢纽做卖点，propcafe 与郑大师的看法不约而同，在供过于求的情况之下，靠近MRT 的房地产升值会受限，租金会下跌】
第八預測 馬來友族進軍房產
鄭水興指出，以往投資的熱點都是根據人流聚集，自然形成的；但是如今投資熱點是受政府發展計劃影響，創造出來的。“現在所有最大型的項目都可輕易看見友族同胞或政聯公司以重要角色參與，可見巫裔同胞對房產的興趣濃厚。＂
鄭水興表示，如今可看見成功巫裔房產投資者大量湧現，也可看見巫裔房產投資講師給予房產投資講座，帶動數千人參與，而這趨勢將會很快地擴展開去。
【 Propcafe.net: 过去二十年以来，房地产投资只是受华裔同胞的青睐，巫裔同胞除了购买自住房地产之外，鲜少涉足房地产的投资。可是，我国的保护土著新经济政策，始于70年代，30余年以来，造就了许多马来中产阶级。10年前，许多土著产业若被拍卖，或无人问津，可是今时今日，地点较好的土著产业拍卖，也不乏有投资及投机者，只能说，今非皆比。】
第九預測 外國投資者大舉進場
很多人認為外國投資者在過去2年內把房地產價格炒高，惟鄭水興表示，其實外國投資者對我國房地產的興趣不高，參與程度也不如市場傳言所說般廣，相反，我國還面對印尼雅加達逐漸興旺所帶來的競爭壓力。然而鄭水興預測此情形將在大選過後有所改變。
“今年外國投資者在大選之後會大舉進場，因為大選後政府將會宣佈更多此前未曾對外發佈的發展計劃，而政策方面也逐漸對外國投資者更加友善。＂他說，這些發展計劃能夠吸引具有冒險精神的中國富裕青年與受政府房產稅務壓抑的新加坡投資者。
【 Propcafe.net : 对于外国投资者是否会大举进场，propcafe.net 还是保持观望态度，这归咎于国家政策，朝令夕改，以售后产税 RPGT而言，自 2003年以来，为了打房，政府已经更改了无数次，外资将无所适从。总的来说，如果政治政略稳定，投资者将不请自来 】
第十預測 房價將創紀錄
至於大馬房產今年的價格走勢，鄭水興預測依斯干達或會在今年創造大馬房價歷史新高，而“大吉隆坡＂計劃則稍微緩慢，續在2015年創造新高。
【吉隆坡及槟岛市内高楼 HIGHRISE 的销售价，从每方尺600元起跳，到1200元不等，相较之下，有地房地产的每方尺价格还是偏低的，从250-500元起跳，故此，propcafe.net 认为以长远投资而言，有地房产的升值能力较高】
一极棒
ya la… give more informations for us wwo(pfp)…
Which area has upsides potential? Mutiara Damansara, Desa Park city, 16 Sierra or Cyberjaya?
最近
产业泡沫流言四起,看了贵栏一席话后,信心十足起来,谢谢。
谢谢抬举，希望黄先生可以多提供宝贵意见。
any english version pls…
Haiyoh translate England can ah? My dad didn’t send me to mandarin school. Because there were only like three Chinese kids in my kampong
Google translate a free service for you right?
Thanks gyu for the idea!
The translated article for those readers who are mandarin-challenged like me
A few months ago, Zheng Xing Masters in water (Sin Chew Daily / Investment rich ‧ Industry Focus) the author in real estate in Malaysia made several forecasts, propcafe.net predicted by Zheng Masters, to be out of our view, willing to work with Readers Share: –
First predicted by global real estate open “fundraising”
ZHENG Shui Hing said that now there is a very obvious phenomenon, that is, in many countries the use of a high-profile real estate construction plans or special economic zones to attract global capital. He pointed out that emerging countries such as Brazil have begun investing through a variety of activities to move capital around the world to develop the Rio de Janeiro to meet two years after the World Cup and four years after the Olympics sporting events. Meanwhile, China has, through the Iskandar special economic zone, move into a world-class infrastructure funding, Laos and Myanmar, also due to the development of special economic zones and gradually prosper again.
“Not only in emerging countries, even the affluent China is also actively developing the second and third tier cities, in Nanning, Chengdu, Hangzhou, Wuxi and other places to build a number of trick-owned economic zones.” In addition, Maldives, Spain, Germany, United Kingdom, Australia other countries also in excellent condition beckon investors to the world, even the United States have rolled out the red carpet to the Asian countries to attract investments. Also because of the real estate market launch development programs around the world to produce recombinant phenomenon.
[Propcafe.net: In economics, Y = C + I + G+ XM theory, real estate can indeed drive the economy, because it can affect the 32 kinds of industries, such as construction, renovation, interior design, furniture, lighting, real estate , banking and insurance industries, the government actively promote the SAR as Iskandar economic investment, not only increased government investment (G ↑), to stimulate the private sector contribution (I ↑), 32 种 sector spending will amount will increase ( C ↑), will attract foreign investment country (X ↑), virtually raised the multiplier effect (Multiplying effect)].
Property hotspots southward second prediction
In the real estate hot spots, ZHENG Shui Hing focus of investors have found a tendency toward southward. ZHENG Shui Xing pointed out that China through various economic activities to the Southeast Asian countries investment, Japan has plans to enter the Southeast Asian market this year, even the United States has visited Myanmar to actively deal with Southeast Asia. Even our own investment hot spots moved southward Iskandar Johor.
“In my prediction among Iskandar must be hot this year, especially in Singapore and Chinese investors more crazy, Malaysian investors will move the focus from other cities Iskandar, and benefit both regions there Johor Bahru. “In addition, ZHENG Shui Hing said that globalization, Europe, America and Japan southward trend in the real estate market in 2013 will lead off again.
Southeast Asia’s real estate is indeed in the near future by many overseas attention.
[Propcafe.net: Iskandar seems to have overheated, attributed to come from the other side of the Bay of investors in Singapore, Iskandar is indeed radiant, but the heat is durable, get to see who will be the next Prime Minister , the next UMNO party elections will be a key, called 一朝天子一朝臣, the newly appointed prime minister will re-planned development areas, such as horse during Putrajaya, Abdullah during the northern economic corridor, Southern Economic corridors. Iskandar and former Prime Minister Putrajaya horse with the same purpose, are oriented to the development of regional politics, success depends on which party and which leaders Alone]
Third rise forecast Southeast real estate
ZHENG Shui Hing said that Southeast Asia was originally a very large market, what powers from the recent Southeast Asian countries have been actively courting the action, you can see their interest in Southeast Asia, such as the United States, the recent focus on very good job with Thailand, Cambodia and Myanmar diplomatic relations.
He pointed out that Indonesia and Myanmar will be Southeast Asia’s two emerging star. “Indonesia’s huge population, spending power and low-cost labor, Myanmar from closed to open, can attract foreign investors to invest in the sudden impact of globalization, the first is the inevitable rise in real estate.”
Nevertheless, Zheng Xing water that has a sound and stable rule of law, Malaysia and Singapore continue to maintain supremacy in Southeast Asia irreplaceable. “A lot of businesses develop the Southeast Asian market, will select the two countries to regional centers, so in financial, office, administration and other aspects of the service areas will be for the better, and therefore benefit from the real estate.”
[Propcafe.net: Singapore government’s recent policy has been a series of ridiculous play room, home buyers will have to pay foreigners in Singapore considerable cost, high stamp duty, housing sales tax, the bank’s strict policy, foreign investment interest cooled . In contrast, Malaysia’s fight housing policy is still quite modest, because without him, in Malaysia, most of the major developers are state-owned or state-owned enterprises, to fight housing policy as too tight, it will affect these State-owned developer prospects]
The fourth project is the independent creation of forecasting tourism hotspot
Tourist spots can drive in the vicinity of the real estate value, Zheng Xing said that the water in some areas is also actively promoting the development of tourism development, make them different from the creation of special economic zones independent investment hotspot. “Cancun, Mexico, Bangkok, Thailand, in particular, is Australia’s Gold Coast, are some of the real estate is driven by the booming tourism areas.”
“I predict that in 2018, tourism-related industries such as hotels, resorts, eco-tourism park, inns, golf courses in the vicinity of industry will be the highest value of the real estate industry.” He also pointed out that the business tourism industry in Malaysia has begun to be focused, “Greater KL Plan” and the revitalization of tourism business to include encouragement between 2013-2016 to build more meeting rooms and four or five-star hotel to accommodate more business travelers from around the world.
[Propcafe.net Malaysia’s major investment locations concentrated in three major cities, namely Kuala Lumpur, Penang, Johor Bahru and Iskandar. Other tourist attractions in the real estate industry, such as Malacca, Langkawi, Kota Kinabalu, Cameron’s tourism industry is still not amount to anything]
Fifth predict the rich will have more money
ZHENG Shui Hing said that real estate investment in recent years has created a lot of millionaires, a phenomenon in China or other emerging markets, especially prevalent. He said that the rich than the average person has the money and the network than to make money through real estate, because the bank will step up this year, credit regulations, increased the difficulty of financing, cash-rich people will have comparative advantages, to further promote the rich get richer .
[Propcafe.net: not only China, in fact, is the same all over the world, according to eighty past eight p.m. common practice, 20% of the world’s rich have 80% of the world’s wealth. Housing strategy to fight increasingly severe blow to the trivial only small investors, the hands of wealthy investors generous cash flow is still not blow]
Sixth forecast second-hand housing market of high value
ZHENG Shui Hing described as Malaysia’s second-hand housing market, like no one to take care of orphans, he encouraged the Government to give appropriate attention, in fact, second-hand housing market has a high value. ZHENG Shui Hing said the government or the developer should not only focus on how to raise the price or were sold, but should focus on the intended use of a buyer or tenant, as the usefulness of real estate can determine the value of its future.
“If the government introduce foreign investors, is to establish a second home in Malaysia, or plan to set up many branches, then these investors are the best quality.” ZHENG Shui Hing example, KLCC area of a building site and the developers are ideal, but 80% of the buyers are foreign investors, in 2009 the debt crisis, investors will abandon the industry, no one is using. Over the past few years, the industry becomes not very satisfactory, low investment returns of real estate. “If the Government can take good care of the Second-hand housing, real estate development will be in the long run, this is good for people in all aspects.”
[Propcafe.net: About the above point, PROPCAFE.NET quite agree, the government opened an eye, close one eye, acquiesce developers to provide DIBS ,10-30% rebate payment of legal fees, printing costs of measures indirectly raises the investor’s purchasing power, investors pulled out without even a penny, just an income, loans to loans, you can sitting on real estate.
It also created a Yishoufang (developers direct) and second-hand housing unfair competition platform, after the sale of second-hand housing market is unable to provide interest-free loans, free legal fees free of stamp duty, the competition has already lost several horses nose. As Master Cheng Yan said, the Government wants to see a healthy housing market to thrive, was required to allow free competition in primary and secondary markets]
Seventh forecast traffic congestion rents down
Many investors are now sought after area MRT related industries, that is the hot spot for investment, but Zheng Xing water has a different view: “While it is built with the MRT, the future value of the property will increase the area, but the construction process will lead to a big traffic jam near downtown rents fell. ”
He added that the investment returns are down, cash-flow problems may emerge, perhaps investors will have to abandon the industry prior to the outcome. ZHENG Shui Hing said the convenience of transportation development value laid the region, South Korea’s success can be attributed to its excellent transport links.
[Propcafe.net: Many developers are now using MRT / LRT transportation hubs do a selling point, propcafe Master Cheng’s views coincide with the oversupply of the circumstances, the appreciation of real estate near the MRT will be limited, rents will fall]
Friends of the family into the Eighth Malaysia Property Prediction
ZHENG Shui Xing pointed out that in the past a hot investment are based on crowd gathered, naturally formed; But now investment hot spot is subject to government development projects affecting, created. “Now all the most large-scale projects can be easily seen friends or family compatriots important role in government-linked companies to participate, visible ethnic compatriots witch keen interest in real estate.”
Zheng Xing water that can now see success Malays real estate investors in large numbers, can also be seen Malays lecturer giving real estate investment real estate investment seminars, led thousands of people to participate, and this trend will soon spread out.
[Propcafe.net: Over the past two decades, real estate investment is only favored by the Chinese compatriots, fellow witch Americans buy their own homes in addition to real estate, the rarely involved in real estate investment. However, China’s new economic policies to protect indigenous, began in the 1970s, since more than 30 years, has produced many Malay middle class. 10 years ago, many indigenous industry if they are auctions, or nobody cares, but nowadays, indigenous industrial auction sites better, but also no shortage of investment and speculators can only say that this non-all ratio. 】
Ninth predict large-scale approach foreign investors
Many people think that foreign investors in the past two years pushed up the price of the real estate, except for water Xing Cheng said that, in fact, foreign investors in China’s real estate’s interest is not high, level of involvement is not as wide as market rumors say, on the contrary, China is still faced with Jakarta, Indonesia gradually thriving competitive pressures brought about. However, Zheng Xing predict this case the water will change after the election.
“This year, foreign investors after the election will be large-scale approach, because after the election the government will announce more not previously released development plans and policy gradually more friendly to foreign investors.” He said, these developments could attract affluent Chinese adventurous youth and estate tax repressed by the government of Singapore investors.
[Propcafe.net: For foreign investors, whether large-scale approach, propcafe.net or to wait and see attitude, which attributed to national policies, changes in policy to sales tax RPGT concerned, since 2003, in order to hit the house, the government has changed numerous times, foreign investment will be at a loss. In general, if the political strategy that gives stability, investors will uninvited]
Tenth record predict prices will
As for the Malaysian property prices this year, Zheng Xing predicted water or Iskandar Malaysia will be created this year, a record high price, and the “Greater Kuala Lumpur” program is a little slow, continued in 2015 to create a new high.
[Kuala Lumpur and Penang Island city high-rise HIGHRISE sales price from 600 yuan per cubic feet off, to 1,200 yuan per month, compared with to the real estate price is still low per feet from 250-500 Dollars, Therefore, propcafe.net considered a long-term investment, real estate appreciation has higher ability to]
This google translated version pretty funny. Sorry guys, we ll try our best to write more billingual articles.
Yup. The bilingual articles are welcomed. Thanks…)
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